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 The new world disorder and the fracturing of the westThe geopolitical situation remains tense, although the world economy is improving MARTIN WOLF Martin Wolf JANUARY 2, 2018 … for image’s text, go to https://www.ft.com/content/54104d98-eedd-11e7-ac08-07c3086a2625 The New International Economic Disorder Dec 21, 2011 MOHAMED A. EL-ERIANA new economic order is taking shape in front of our eyes, as the old Western powers and the emerging world’s major new players converge. But the forces driving this convergence are not those that generations of economists envisaged when they pointed out the inadequacy of the old order. NEWPORT BEACH – A new economic order is taking shape before our eyes, and it is one that includes accelerated convergence between the old Western powers and the emerging world’s major new players. But the forces driving this convergence have little to do with what generations of economists envisaged when they pointed out the inadequacy of the old order; and these forces’ implications may be equally unsettling. For decades, many people lamented the extent to which the West dominated the global economic system. From the governance of multilateral organizations to the design of financial services, the global infrastructure was seen as favoring Western interests. While there was much talk of reform, Western countries repeatedly countered serious efforts that would result in meaningful erosion of their entitlements. On the few occasions that such resistance was seemingly overcome, the outcome was gradual and timid change. Consequently, many emerging-market economies lost confidence in the “pooled insurance” that the global system supposedly put at their disposal, especially at times of great need … for more, go to https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/the-new-international-economic-disorder?barrier=accessreg |
Trump’s wish for ‘World Disorder’ slowly but surely coming true
KUALA LUMPUR (April 2018): These days when the United Nations (UN) and the World Trade Organisation (WTO) talk about World Order, one wonders what they are talking about.
What World Order? It’s now heading towards a deepening World Disorder!
And, the rest of the world has the war-waging US led by President Donald Trump to thank for.
As stressed in recent articles posted in I Love Malaysia-China Silk Road, it is the beginning of a bruising global trade war, and perhaps nothing ever witnessed in economic history.
Clearly, the Trump-led US is desperate to save itself from economic and financial implosion and ruin, arising from a national debt of between US$20 trillion and US$222 (Read these for context: https://ilovemalaysiachinasilkroad.blogspot.my/2018/01/is-us-debt-us20-trillion-or-us222.html (Is the US debt US$20 trillion or US$222 trillion?) and https://ilovemalaysiachinasilkroad.blogspot.my/2017/10/whatever-analysts-say-china-russia.html (Whatever analysts say, the China-Russia Combo is keeping the US world hegemony in check!) … amid a China-Russia Combo that is tightening a stranglehold on the US by attacking the Greenback with gold-backed trans border trade financial transactions, beginning mid last year.
With 69 cities and countries signing agreements with China to develop the trillion-dollar Belt Road Initiative (BRI), the US is both hapless and helpless.
Read these three latest developments of the Trump-initiated US-China global trade war, or should we now aptly term as World Disorder:
"China says Trump tariff plan puts WTO in ‘unprecedented danger’
ECONOMY
Wednesday, 4 Apr 2018
3:30 PM MYT
WASHINGTON: China vowed to counter a U.S. proposal to charge extra tariffs on a list of its high-tech exports, and said the Trump administration’s actions are putting the World Trade Organization in “unprecedented danger.”
In a statement released Wednesday, China’s envoy to the WTO, Zhang Xiangchen, said that a proposal by the U.S. trade representative to recoup alleged losses due to intellectual-property abuse on around US$50bil of Chinese goods is “an intentional and gross violation of the WTO’s fundamental principles of non-discrimination and bound tariffs.”
Deputy ministers from China’s commerce and finance ministries are due to hold a press briefing at 4:30 p.m. Beijing time Wednesday.
In deciding which products to hit, U.S. officials on Tuesday identified 1,300 product lines that the U.S. Trade Representative’s office says benefit unfairly from government industrial policies, including Beijing’s Made in China 2025 plan to to dominate key strategic technologies.
China’s Ministry of Commerce on Wednesday said it would immediately appeal to the WTO and was “ready to take counter measures on U.S. products with the same intensity and scale.”
In targeting sectors that Beijing is openly trying to promote, the U.S. is signaling that its strategic aim in the current conflict is preventing China from gaining the global technological leadership that it wants. That has provoked anger in China, while analysts voiced doubt that the tariffs will succeed in changing Beijing’s behavior.
The tariffs may have only a minor economic impact, increasing levies by US$12.5bil on Chinese shipments to the U.S. that reached US$506bil last year, said Shane Oliver, the head of investment strategy at AMP Capital Investors Ltd. in Sydney. That’s an average tariff increase on overall imports from China of just 2.5%, he said.
”The main risk is that China’s response leads to a counter retaliation by the U.S. and a process of escalating tariffs that leads to a sharp slowing in trade between the two countries,” said Oliver.
Asian stocks were mixed as traders awaited a more detailed response from China to the latest escalation of trade tensions between the world’s two largest trading nations. The Shanghai Composite Index rose.
Industries including aerospace, information and communications technology, robotics and machinery are among those targeted by the USTR on Tuesday, which said it also chose products to minimize the impact on the U.S. economy and consumers.
In addition to advanced technologies such as communication satellites, the list includes things ranging from various types of steel to television components, medical devices, dishwashers, snow blowers and even flame throwers.
”The U.S. has this vicious intention to strangle China’s high-tech innovation,” said Wei Jianguo, former vice commerce minister and now an executive deputy director of the China Center for International Economic Exchanges, a government-linked think tank. “China won’t submit to the U.S. bully. Our countermeasures will hit their soft spots.”
The U.S. duties will likely provoke a strong response from China, said Carlos Gutierrez, U.S. commerce secretary under former President George W. Bush.
“Wars start with battles, and the battles have started,” Gutierrez, co-chair of the consulting firm Albright Stonebridge Group, said in an interview in Mexico City.
Chinese President Xi Jinping “can’t afford to look like he’s getting pushed around.”
What our economists say ...
The U.S. proposal on tariffs aims to hit China’s industrial ambitions without hurting U.S. consumers,” said Tom Orlik, chief Asia economist at Bloomberg Economics in Beijing. “On both objectives, it will likely fall short. In sum – we think the macro impact will be limited and the strategic objectives difficult to achieve.”
The release of the list by U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer leads into a roughly 60-day period when the public can provide feedback and the government holds hearings on the tariffs. The 25 percent tariffs come on top of any existing levies.
China’s Made in China 2025 plan was announced in 2015, and highlighted 10 sectors for support on the way to China becoming an advanced manufacturing power, from information technology, to robotics and aerospace. In addition, China has a separate development strategy for artificial intelligence, published in 2017.
USTR said the public can submit written comments on the tariffs until May 11, and it will hold a public hearing on them on May 15 in Washington. - Bloomberg
Gold gains as worsening Sino-US trade tensions dent risk appetite
BUSINESS NEWS
Wednesday, 4 Apr 2018
3:36 PM MYT
In a statement released Wednesday, China’s envoy to the WTO, Zhang Xiangchen, said that a proposal by the U.S. trade representative to recoup alleged losses due to intellectual-property abuse on around US$50bil of Chinese goods is “an intentional and gross violation of the WTO’s fundamental principles of non-discrimination and bound tariffs.”
Deputy ministers from China’s commerce and finance ministries are due to hold a press briefing at 4:30 p.m. Beijing time Wednesday.
In deciding which products to hit, U.S. officials on Tuesday identified 1,300 product lines that the U.S. Trade Representative’s office says benefit unfairly from government industrial policies, including Beijing’s Made in China 2025 plan to to dominate key strategic technologies.
China’s Ministry of Commerce on Wednesday said it would immediately appeal to the WTO and was “ready to take counter measures on U.S. products with the same intensity and scale.”
In targeting sectors that Beijing is openly trying to promote, the U.S. is signaling that its strategic aim in the current conflict is preventing China from gaining the global technological leadership that it wants. That has provoked anger in China, while analysts voiced doubt that the tariffs will succeed in changing Beijing’s behavior.
The tariffs may have only a minor economic impact, increasing levies by US$12.5bil on Chinese shipments to the U.S. that reached US$506bil last year, said Shane Oliver, the head of investment strategy at AMP Capital Investors Ltd. in Sydney. That’s an average tariff increase on overall imports from China of just 2.5%, he said.
”The main risk is that China’s response leads to a counter retaliation by the U.S. and a process of escalating tariffs that leads to a sharp slowing in trade between the two countries,” said Oliver.
Asian stocks were mixed as traders awaited a more detailed response from China to the latest escalation of trade tensions between the world’s two largest trading nations. The Shanghai Composite Index rose.
Industries including aerospace, information and communications technology, robotics and machinery are among those targeted by the USTR on Tuesday, which said it also chose products to minimize the impact on the U.S. economy and consumers.
In addition to advanced technologies such as communication satellites, the list includes things ranging from various types of steel to television components, medical devices, dishwashers, snow blowers and even flame throwers.
”The U.S. has this vicious intention to strangle China’s high-tech innovation,” said Wei Jianguo, former vice commerce minister and now an executive deputy director of the China Center for International Economic Exchanges, a government-linked think tank. “China won’t submit to the U.S. bully. Our countermeasures will hit their soft spots.”
The U.S. duties will likely provoke a strong response from China, said Carlos Gutierrez, U.S. commerce secretary under former President George W. Bush.
“Wars start with battles, and the battles have started,” Gutierrez, co-chair of the consulting firm Albright Stonebridge Group, said in an interview in Mexico City.
Chinese President Xi Jinping “can’t afford to look like he’s getting pushed around.”
What our economists say ...
The U.S. proposal on tariffs aims to hit China’s industrial ambitions without hurting U.S. consumers,” said Tom Orlik, chief Asia economist at Bloomberg Economics in Beijing. “On both objectives, it will likely fall short. In sum – we think the macro impact will be limited and the strategic objectives difficult to achieve.”
The release of the list by U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer leads into a roughly 60-day period when the public can provide feedback and the government holds hearings on the tariffs. The 25 percent tariffs come on top of any existing levies.
China’s Made in China 2025 plan was announced in 2015, and highlighted 10 sectors for support on the way to China becoming an advanced manufacturing power, from information technology, to robotics and aerospace. In addition, China has a separate development strategy for artificial intelligence, published in 2017.
USTR said the public can submit written comments on the tariffs until May 11, and it will hold a public hearing on them on May 15 in Washington. - Bloomberg
Gold gains as worsening Sino-US trade tensions dent risk appetite
BUSINESS NEWS
Wednesday, 4 Apr 2018
3:36 PM MYT
BENGALURU: Gold prices gained on Wednesday, as investors stayed away from risk assets after the United States slapped tariffs on $50 billion worth imports from China, raising the stakes in a growing trade showdown with Beijing.
Spot gold rose 0.2% to US$1,334.64 per ounce as of 0700 GMT, after falling 0.6% in the previous session.
U.S. gold futures were up 0.1% at US$1,338.40 an ounce.
The Trump administration on Tuesday announced 25% tariffs on some 1,300 industrial technology, transport and medical products to try to force changes in Beijing’s intellectual property practices.
“The markets will be looking out for what China will do in retaliation to such a move, that alone will have a huge potential in dragging the market sentiment and risk appetite,” said OCBC analyst Barnabas Gan.
China’s commerce ministry said on Wednesday it ”strongly condemns and firmly opposes” the proposed U.S. tariffs following the Section 301 probe and will take counter measures, according to the official Xinhua news agency.
“If there is any further intensification in the trade war issue and no quick resolution, we see gold prices could potentially bridge its US$1,400 resistance level,” Gan said.
The dollar slipped and Asian share markets faltered on simmering fears of a China-U.S. trade war.
“It seems that investors are not panicking as much as they were, aware that these are opening gambits that will ultimately need to be negotiated quietly and away from the headlines,” said INTL FCStone analyst Edward Meir.
“We assume that between now and the time that the tariffs take effect, both sides will be hard at work in order to gain concessions from one another and thus avoid having to impose tariffs.” Gold is often used as a store of value during times of financial or political uncertainty.
“Market focus will shift to the U.S. non-farm payrolls on Friday... stronger-than-expected data could halt gold’s upward momentum again,” Standard Chartered analysts said in a note on Tuesday.
In other precious metals, spot silver rose 0.3% to US$16.43 per ounce, after shedding 1.4% on Tuesday.
Platinum was 0.6% lower at US$918.24 an ounce, after falling to as low as US$912 in the previous session, its lowest since late December.
Palladium was down 0.2% at US$928.10 an ounce after touching US$924.50, its lowest since Oct. 9, 2017. - Reuters
US tariffs aimed at China give Japan new reasons to worry
ECONOMY
Wednesday, 4 Apr 2018
12:54 PM MYT
Spot gold rose 0.2% to US$1,334.64 per ounce as of 0700 GMT, after falling 0.6% in the previous session.
U.S. gold futures were up 0.1% at US$1,338.40 an ounce.
The Trump administration on Tuesday announced 25% tariffs on some 1,300 industrial technology, transport and medical products to try to force changes in Beijing’s intellectual property practices.
“The markets will be looking out for what China will do in retaliation to such a move, that alone will have a huge potential in dragging the market sentiment and risk appetite,” said OCBC analyst Barnabas Gan.
China’s commerce ministry said on Wednesday it ”strongly condemns and firmly opposes” the proposed U.S. tariffs following the Section 301 probe and will take counter measures, according to the official Xinhua news agency.
“If there is any further intensification in the trade war issue and no quick resolution, we see gold prices could potentially bridge its US$1,400 resistance level,” Gan said.
The dollar slipped and Asian share markets faltered on simmering fears of a China-U.S. trade war.
“It seems that investors are not panicking as much as they were, aware that these are opening gambits that will ultimately need to be negotiated quietly and away from the headlines,” said INTL FCStone analyst Edward Meir.
“We assume that between now and the time that the tariffs take effect, both sides will be hard at work in order to gain concessions from one another and thus avoid having to impose tariffs.” Gold is often used as a store of value during times of financial or political uncertainty.
“Market focus will shift to the U.S. non-farm payrolls on Friday... stronger-than-expected data could halt gold’s upward momentum again,” Standard Chartered analysts said in a note on Tuesday.
In other precious metals, spot silver rose 0.3% to US$16.43 per ounce, after shedding 1.4% on Tuesday.
Platinum was 0.6% lower at US$918.24 an ounce, after falling to as low as US$912 in the previous session, its lowest since late December.
Palladium was down 0.2% at US$928.10 an ounce after touching US$924.50, its lowest since Oct. 9, 2017. - Reuters
US tariffs aimed at China give Japan new reasons to worry
ECONOMY
Wednesday, 4 Apr 2018
12:54 PM MYT
TOKYO: Japan may be sympathetic to some of the complaints driving the U.S. to impose 25% tariffs on about US$50bil of Chinese-made products, but it will find little reason to cheer.
For one thing, if Chinese exports become more expensive in the U.S. because of the tariffs, competing goods from elsewhere will be more attractive. For Japan, that may create a bigger political liability in an era when U.S. President Donald Trump is haranguing even the U.S.’s closest allies about their bilateral trade balances.
“In the end Japan’s trade surplus with the U.S. would get bigger, and the demands from the Trump administration to reduce it would get even stronger,” said Junichi Sugawara, senior research officer at Mizuho Research Institute. U.S. demands for greater access to Japan’s agriculture and auto markets would grow, he said.
The U.S. tariffs, which cover sectors from health care to auto parts, will affect countries other than China. Japanese companies have sourced production in China, and many Chinese-made tech exports such as smartphones, contain Japanese parts. If U.S.-bound shipments from China slump, Japan will take a hit as well.
One irony is that Japan and the U.S. are in broad agreement on many trade issues, including China’s intellectual property practices, but Tokyo finds itself watching warily as the U.S. acts unilaterally.
Japan shares an understanding with the U.S. that China’s infringement of intellectual property and excess steel production is a problem, Sugawara said, but it doesn’t agree on how to address the issue. “If the U.S. were to bring this up in the WTO, I think Japan would join it in the case,” he said, referring to the World Trade Organization. - Bloomberg"
For one thing, if Chinese exports become more expensive in the U.S. because of the tariffs, competing goods from elsewhere will be more attractive. For Japan, that may create a bigger political liability in an era when U.S. President Donald Trump is haranguing even the U.S.’s closest allies about their bilateral trade balances.
“In the end Japan’s trade surplus with the U.S. would get bigger, and the demands from the Trump administration to reduce it would get even stronger,” said Junichi Sugawara, senior research officer at Mizuho Research Institute. U.S. demands for greater access to Japan’s agriculture and auto markets would grow, he said.
The U.S. tariffs, which cover sectors from health care to auto parts, will affect countries other than China. Japanese companies have sourced production in China, and many Chinese-made tech exports such as smartphones, contain Japanese parts. If U.S.-bound shipments from China slump, Japan will take a hit as well.
One irony is that Japan and the U.S. are in broad agreement on many trade issues, including China’s intellectual property practices, but Tokyo finds itself watching warily as the U.S. acts unilaterally.
Japan shares an understanding with the U.S. that China’s infringement of intellectual property and excess steel production is a problem, Sugawara said, but it doesn’t agree on how to address the issue. “If the U.S. were to bring this up in the WTO, I think Japan would join it in the case,” he said, referring to the World Trade Organization. - Bloomberg"
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| Wilhelm Röpke WORKS PUBLISHED IN Who Is ...Mises Daily Article I champion an economic order ruled by free prices and markets ... the only economic order compatible with human freedom. Wilhelm Röpke (1899 - 1966) Written by Shawn Ritenour Wilhelm Röpke devoted his scholarly career to combating collectivism in economic, social, and political theory. As a student and proponent of the Austrian School, he contributed to its theoretical structure and political vision, warning of the dangers of political consolidation and underscoring the connection between culture and economic systems. More than any other Austrian of his time, he explored the ethical foundations of a market-based social order. He defended the free market from socialist cultural critics by pointing out that social crises and cultural decline are not the product of the free society; one needs to look to state control, political centralization, welfare, and inflation as a primary source of social decay. Röpke influenced the direction of post-war German economic reform, became a leading intellectual force in shaping the post-war American conservative movement, particularly its "fusionist" branch, and has been compared with Mises as an archetype of the individualist thinker … for more, go to https://mises.org/profile/wilhelm-r%C3%B6pke |
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